POPULATION MODELING:
ANALYSIS OF THE 2023 DEMOGRAPHIC CENSUS IN MUNICIPALITIES OF MARANHÃO
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.70860/RIEcim.2764-2534.2026.v6.20324Keywords:
Mathematical Modeling, Population Growth, Demographic Census, IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics), MaranhãoAbstract
This article stems from the PIBIC research project "Population Modeling: an analysis of the results of the 2023 IBGE Demographic Census" and focuses on the delay of the 2020 Census due to the Covid-19 pandemic, and the controversies generated after the release of the 2023 data, especially regarding the population reduction recorded in some municipalities of Maranhão and its impacts on the municipal legislative body. The general objective is to conduct a comparative study between mathematical models of population growth and the results of the 2023 Demographic Census for municipalities in the state of Maranhão. The theoretical framework is based on mathematical modeling applied to demography, highlighting the classical population growth models proposed by Malthus and Verhulst, as well as asymptotic and trigonometric models. Methodologically, the research is characterized as bibliographic, descriptive, documentary, and qualitative, according to Gil (2008), using historical data from the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) and the comparative analysis of graphs generated by different mathematical models applied to six municipalities in Maranhão with consistent demographic series. The results indicate convergence between the mathematical models and census data only in some of the cities analyzed, while in other municipalities, the models pointed to a population growth trend that diverged from the official data, highlighting the need for complementary analyses and the critical use of mathematical modeling as a tool to support the interpretation of demographic data and public planning.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Handrya Lorena Oliveira, Eliane Silva, Francisco Pessoa de Paiva Junior Junior
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